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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
OPTIONS
- Overnight G10 FX vols are well bid ahead of the US CPI release later today, with a solid risk premium added to USD pairs, tipping most overnight implied vols measures to the highest levels since Dec13 and the last Fed rate decision.
- Vol markets have identified EUR, AUD and NZD as carrying the most sizeable CPI-based vol premium, blowing out the break-evens and implied pricing for a post-data swing against the USD.
- An overnight straddle on AUD/USD implies a 50 pip swing in spot for a Friday expiry, over double the implied break-even using prevailing vol at the beginning of the week. This puts this month’s CPI release on comparative footing to the December CPI/Fed meetings, and above the equivalent releases on Nov14, Oct12 and Sep13 and Aug10 of last year.
- In the event of a stronger-than-expected CPI read and a backtrack on Fed rate cut pricing, a 50 pip swing in AUD/USD would bring ’24 lows of 0.6641 into play ahead of notable support at the 0.6629 50-dma.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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