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Volatile TTF on Weather and Supply Risks

NATURAL GAS

TTF bouncing between 110€/MWh and 120€/MWh as a potential delay to the return of the US Freeport LNG terminal and upside risk of colder weather and higher demand is offset against the high LNG imports and almost full gas storage.

  • European storage is up to 95.35% full with Germany at 99.55%, Italy at 95.49%, Netherlands at 91.47% and France at 99.92% according to GIE data for Nov 7.
  • LNG imports into Europe have increased up to around 420mcm/d after a dip during the second half of October.
  • The latest weather forecast is still showing temperatures above average throughout the two week forecast period.
    • TTF DEC 22 down -1.6% at 116.25€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 23 down -2.1% at 123.25€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 down -2.2% at 121.95€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 0.4% at 95.01€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 0% at 93.51€/MWh

Source: MNI / GIE AGSI

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TTF bouncing between 110€/MWh and 120€/MWh as a potential delay to the return of the US Freeport LNG terminal and upside risk of colder weather and higher demand is offset against the high LNG imports and almost full gas storage.

  • European storage is up to 95.35% full with Germany at 99.55%, Italy at 95.49%, Netherlands at 91.47% and France at 99.92% according to GIE data for Nov 7.
  • LNG imports into Europe have increased up to around 420mcm/d after a dip during the second half of October.
  • The latest weather forecast is still showing temperatures above average throughout the two week forecast period.
    • TTF DEC 22 down -1.6% at 116.25€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 23 down -2.1% at 123.25€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 down -2.2% at 121.95€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 0.4% at 95.01€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 0% at 93.51€/MWh

Source: MNI / GIE AGSI