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Volatility May Be Heightened Following Haddad Comments

BRAZIL
  • The Brazilian Real sold off into the close with USDBRL closing just shy of the Tuesday highs at 5.2364. Short-term conditions for the pair appear bullish despite the pullback from 5.3073, the Feb 10 high. A resumption of gains would open 5.3518 next, the 76.4% retracement of the Jan 4 - Feb 2 bear leg.
  • Finance Minister Fernando Haddad confirmed late Tuesday that federal taxes on fuels would be reimposed; expected to increase the price of gasoline by 0.47 reais per litre and ethanol’s price by 0.02 reais per litre.
    • Measures will reverse the impact of a fuel-price cut announced by Petrobras only hours earlier.
    • Haddad also announced a levy of 9.2% on oil exports, which will last four months and is expected to boost government’s revenues by 6.7 billion reais.
    • The finance minister also said Brazil’s government will do its part and expects central bank to work as written in its minutes, highlighting that the improved fiscal outlook could open the way for more easy monetary policy.
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