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Volkswagen (A3/BBB+): 4Q23 Preview

CONSUMER CYCLICALS

2024 outlook for the OEMs has been challenging and expect no different from VW. The industry is walking a tightrope with investment in BEV required for long term growth, while short-term growth will slow YoY. All while navigating a difficult macro backdrop with interest rates squeezing the customer base.

  • Revenue is expected to come in at €81.23bn, +7% YoY.
  • Consensus for adj. operating income at €5.81bn, +15% YoY.
  • FCF of €1.96bn expected.
  • Consensus sees a 5% automotive net debt increase to €44.84bn.
  • Prefer VW Bank or VW Leasing risk on valuation, as highlighted yesterday.

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