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Volvo (A2/A): Q124 Earnings Preview

CAPITAL GOODS

• Volvo reports earnings preopen tomorrow. Consensus sees revenue -1.5% and adj. operating income -6% YoY.

• Although Q4 results beat consensus, adj. operating margin was lower at 12.4%. Orders were softer than expected and a downgraded volume outlook sent shares lower.

• Focus will be on FY guidance with most companies guiding for a stronger second half; the market will want to see if that assumption still holds.

• Revenue and operating profit consensus have increased 2% and 8% since Q1 release.

• VLVY spreads have traded lower beta than similar rated BMW and MBBGR despite their wider spread. VLVY bonds currently trade around their YTD average vs BMW and slightly wide to MBGGR driven by the latter outperforming in the rally.

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