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Vote Count Nearly Completed, Preliminary Results Confirm Pro-EU Parties Will Govern

POLAND
  • Pro-EU parties remain on track to form the next government after the National Electoral Commission counted 99.99% of votes, with last night seeing some tight races drawing to an end. The ruling Law and Justice (PiS) remains in the lead with 35.38% of the vote but will not be able to form the next administration, paving the way for a coalition government of the Civic Coalition (KO), Third Way (TD) and the New Left (NL). Far-right Confederation improved its result to 7.16% but is unlikely to play any role in government formation. It is worth noting that the opposition won the upper house election by a landslide, claiming 66 out of 100 seats contested using the first-past-the-post system.
  • Onet ran a report on coalition talks between the three pro-EU parties, with Civic Coalition leader and former European Council President Donald Tusk expected to become Prime Minister. The centre-right Polish People's Party (PSL) reportedly demands the position of Sejm Speaker, while their colleagues from Poland 2050 would like to get the Defence Ministry. The New Left has the weakest negotiating position as it is set to roughly halve its number of seats in the lower house.
  • President Andrzej Duda will likely ask PiS to try and form government, which is expected to fail but will keep the incumbents in power for a few more weeks. Following that, election front-runners should pass on the baton to the current opposition, which may form government as late as in December. The three-party bloc called on the President to facilitate the process of government formation.
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