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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FED
- Cleveland Fed research finds that the “increase in wage growth [during and after the pandemic] largely reflects the pass-through of higher inflation and does not reflect labor market imbalances” when using a new empirical wage Phillips curve model.
- Looking ahead, their model forecasts a decline in wage growth to about 3% annually by 2025, interpreted as consistent with the inflation target. Specifically, wage growth is seen declining to 3.3% Y/Y by 4Q24 and 2.8% by 4Q24 against a backdrop of inflation at 2.6% and 2.2% respectively.
- Should inflation remain fixed at 4.1%, the annualized rate in 1Q23, wage growth would barely decline from 4.7% Y/Y in 1Q23 to 4.6% Y/Y 4Q25.
- Link: https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/economic-commentary/2023/ec-202313-postpandemic-nominal-wage-growth-inflation-passthrough-or-labor-market-imbalance?
Source: Cleveland Fed
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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