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Wage Report Prompts Analysts To Speculate That CNB May Reduce Pace Of Cuts This Month

CZECHIA
  • Above-forecast wage data stole the limelight yesterday, with questions re: CNB rate trajectory resurfacing. JP Morgan said that the CNB will likely reduce the pace of cuts to 25bp at the next meeting, "closing the door on a potential 50bp cut." ING also expect a 25bp cut this month as "the stronger nominal wage growth and more robust consumer spending in 1Q24 will factor in the central bank's current easing-cycle decisions." In a similar vein, Komercni banka see increased odds of a slowdown in monetary easing to 25bp/meeting as soon as this month, albeit they stress that inflation data for May will be important.
  • The CZSO released retail sales data, with the ex-auto figure rising 5.3% Y/Y in April, which was slightly less than the consensus forecast of +5.5%. The previous reading was revised to +5.8% from +6.1%. The accompanying commentary noted that "the following contributed the most to the increase of sales in retail trade: retail sale via mail order houses or via Internet and retail sale in non-specialised stores with food, beverages or tobacco predominating."
  • Labour Minister Marian Jurecka will discuss the projections for pension-system developments later today.
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