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Wages Consistent With Inflation, Monitor Q3

AUSTRALIA DATA

The Q2 wage price index rose less than expected at 0.8% q/q and 3.6% y/y after 0.8% and 3.7% in Q1. Thus wages remained consistent with the inflation target in Q2 and should mean that the RBA is on hold again at its September 5 meeting.

  • However, the Q3 data is key with not only minimum wages increasing on July 1 but also other awards (awards didn’t contribute to Q2 rise). The WPI rose 1.1% q/q in Q3 2022. While it is not released until November 15, we should see if services were able to pass on higher wages in Q3 CPI data on October 25. The July NAB wage cost component rose sharply.
  • The ABS noted that higher inflation and the tight labour market had resulted in higher wages. While the share of workers receiving higher wages in Q2 this year was lower than last year, the size of increase was larger, “… share of jobs which received increases above 3 percent was the highest for a June quarter since 2012”.
  • Private wages rose 0.8% q/q and 3.8% y/y in line with Q1, while the public sector continued catching up rising 0.7% and 3.1% after 2.9%. The average hourly private sector increase for those wages that rose continued to trend higher in Q2 at 4.5% compared with 4.3% in Q1 and 3.8% in Q2 2022. For the public sector it was 3% after 3% and 2.4% respectively.
Australia wages growth ex bonuses y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS/SEEK

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