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Waiting for US CPI and first results of Tory leadership contest

BONDS
  • Gilts underperformed at the open as the market digested comments from Governor Bailey last night (he didn't rule out a move of a magnitude other than 25bp) and better-then-expected UK May activity data. However, gilts have moved off their lows, while Bunds are sitting around their lows of the day, and the performance of the gilt and German curves on the day has converged. Moves are limited to less than 4bp, however, with moves across the UST curve even smaller.
  • Treasuries are a little higher on the day as the market awaits the key US CPI report, due at 13:30BST / 8:30ET. There are two-way risks further out the curve than the July meeting in particular. For the MNI US CPI Preview click here.
  • We will also have the results of the first round of voting in the Conservative party leadership contest (race to become next UK PM), in which we will receive the vote breakdown and see either the bottom candidate or any candidates who do not receive 30 MPs' votes eliminated from the contest.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-1 today at 118-22 with 10y UST yields down -0.8bp at 2.963% and 2y yields down -0.7bp at 3.044%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.58 today at 152.43 with 10y Bund yields up 3.3bp at 1.162% and Schatz yields up 4.9bp at 0.389%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.40 today at 115.65 with 10y yields up 2.6bp at 2.099% and 2y yields up 3.1bp at 1.805%.
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