MNI BRIEF: China Visitor Mobile Payments Surge in H1

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, July 26

MNI BRIEF: Foreign Firms Content In China

MNI BRIEF: Turkish Inflation Expectations Steady- TEBA

MNI China Press Digest July 26: Deposit Rates, Fiscal, PBOC

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY299.05 Bln via OMO Fri

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 589; OIL RIGS 482; GAS RIGS 101

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT FINAL JUL INDEX 66.4

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: BoE Short APF Operation on Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Waller With Some Focus On Headline Inflation

FED

Relatively little impact on Fed Funds futures pricing after comments from Fed Governor Waller, with a 71bp hike for Jul and 181bps over the four meetings to year-end, despite generally hawkish comments. There were some interesting discussions around inflation measures (with paraphrased answers below):


* When asked preferred core inflation measures: "I look at CPI and headline PCE is our number. CPI is more heavily weighted towards shelter, I like that because that’s more consistent with what low and moderate income groups face - I don’t dismiss it and look at it very seriously."

* Particular focus on higher headline rate, when asked on what happens as core measures begin to look reasonable but more elevated on headline number with energy and food shock from Ukraine war: "Whatever the cause of is I don’t care. We picked headline inflation as our target so at the end of the day we need to get headline inflation down as best we can. I like to look at core because it gives me some idea of where we might be headed, it could be wrong, but headline is our target and that’s what we’re looking at."
* Core PCE is clearly still important though. "Core PCE has been growing at 0.3% M/M for four months, that’s 4% annualized and double our target, that’s not acceptable. I need to see inflation and core PCE in particular coming down much closer to 2.5-3% by the end of the year to be comfortable thinking about backing off interest rate hikes towards the end of the year or beginning of next year. Right now that doesn’t look like that’s going to happen but I’d need to see it ticking down to two tenths a month to give any indication that inflation going forward is going to be much lower."
Energy BulletsCommoditiesFOMC Calendar Market News
Energy BulletsCommoditiesFOMC Calendar Market News

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.