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Warner Music Group Upgraded From BB+ To BBB- To IG At S&P

COMMUNICATIONS

New Profile: Ba2[P]/BBB-[S]


  • Revenue projected to at least +4% annually with EBITDA margin expansion; despite being the smallest of the big three music labels, it holds a sizeable market share and so will benefit from the proliferation of music streaming services and social media licensing deals through its subscription-based business model.
  • Leverage seen ~2.8x in FY24 with the expectation that the company will remain around ~3x aside from any acquisition of niche/regional assets which could see leverage temporarily exceed 3.5x against new upside/downside thresholds of 2.5x/3.5x. Debt-funded payouts are not expected.
  • Downgrade also possible on a weaker competitive position while an upgrade could come on industry growth tailwinds.
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