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Watch Claims For Further Massachusetts Distortion, Philly Fed After Empire Slump

US DATA
  • Initial claims (0830ET) potentially get more closely looked at this week, covering both a payrolls reference week and considering recent Massachusetts fraud developments.
  • Last week’s initial claims surprisingly rose 264k (cons 245k) which was one factor that helped spark risk-off moves with the S&P E-mini only clearing May 11 levels yesterday.
  • The seasonally adjusted jump came as the NSA figure increased 14k to a higher than typical 234k but almost half of this came from Massachusetts (+6.4k).
  • Consensus has SA jobless claims falling to 252k from that 264k but any large swings in either direction for the Massachusetts figure could help bias the market reaction.
  • Released at the same time, the Philly Fed survey is also watched closely after Monday’s tumbling in the volatile Empire survey from +10.8 to -31.8. Consensus sees Philly rising from -31.3 to -20 and the two surveys have regularly seen larger discrepancies in recent months.

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