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Watching Saunders "Inflation Outlook" speech

UK
  • Just following up on that UK labour market data - pretty much zero reaction for the pound. It's close enough to consensus that I wouldn't expect any impact on short sterling or gilts later either.
  • The highlight of the day will be the speech from MPC member Saunders speech entitled "The Inflation Outlook". This will add to colour from Cunliffe and Ramsden yesterday who both seemed to still think inflation is transitory but to be a bit more alert to the risks given the higher print seen yesterday.
  • There is still focus on the 5s30s gilt curve. Yesterday we broke support and traded at to the lows of the year at 79.7bp. The October 2020 low of 77.5bp is the next target with the 50% retracement of the March 2020 low to the March 2021 high the next key downside level at 73.2bp.
  • In terms of the pound, our technical analyst sees us almost a big figure away from both support and resistance. Resistance seen at the 50-day EMA at 1.3937 with key resistance at the June 23 high of 1.4001. Support at the July 2 low (the bear trigger) at 1.3733.
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