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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NEW ZEALAND
December card spending was weak, likely reflecting the impact of 400bp of tightening. Electronic card transactions fell 1.2% m/m, its second consecutive monthly drop. Retail card transactions fell 2.5% m/m after rising 0.3% in November. Annual growth is now well off of its September peak but still positive. The RBNZ Governor Orr asked people to reduce their spending at his November press conference and it seems that they listened.
- There is a high correlation between retail card transactions and nominal retail sales, which is a quarterly series. Despite a weak end to the quarter, the value of retail transactions rose 1.4% q/q in Q4 2022 suggesting that Q4 retail sales could still post another strong result on February 27 (Q3 +2.5% q/q).
- But the card transactions data indicate that there was weak momentum going into the start of 2023, and that with the sharp drop in December consumer confidence suggests that retail sales could possibly be quite weak in Q1 2023.
NZ retail sales y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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