GERMAN DATA
German factory orders fell by 0.4% M/M in March, softer than the +0.4% expected and an even bigger downside miss when considering a downward revision in February (by 1.0pp to -0.8% - all figures are real, SWDA). The underlying 'core' measure pointed towards some stabilisation, however.
- Factory orders fell 1.9% Y/Y (vs -0.7% consensus) vs -8.8% in February, with the improvement in the annual comparison mainly due to base effects.
- Core (ex-large ticket items) orders, a better measure of underlying activity, increased by 0.1% in March (vs -0.6% prior); its less volatile 3M/3M measure printed weaker than before, though, at -2.3% (vs -0.9% prior).
- The breakdown showed the slight 'core' rise was driven by foreign orders (+2.0% M/M vs -1.8% prior, the fastest growth in 4 months), with similar growth in both the Eurozone and non-EZ regions). In contrast, domestic orders decreased by 2.5% (vs +1.0% prior).
- From a category-by-category perspective, core orders rose in all main groups except intermediate goods, with durable goods a notable area of strength (+2.4% M/M vs +3.5% prior after a very weak Jan/Dec).
- Real manufacturing turnover meanwhile declined 0.7% M/M in March (1.1% prior, downwardly revised 1.1pp), adding to evidence that data released Wednesday will show industrial production ended its recent 2-month in March (-0.7% cons vs +2.1% prior).
- Overall, even though core orders are stabilising, the data looks weak compared with other recent German economic prints and soft domestic orders continue to point to an export-led rather than domestic-demand fuelled recovery. Looking ahead, while the key surveys (PMI and IFO) both suggested that manufacturing activity improved in April, they also both remained in contractionary territory.
MNI, Destatis
281 words