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Weak Empire Survey Another Sign Of Delta / Inflation Impact?

US DATA

Monday's sole macro data point disappointed vs expectations, with the Aug Empire Manufacturing Survey headline figure coming in at 18.3 vs 28.5 expected and significantly lower than the survey record-high 43.0 in July. This was the 3rd largest monthly fall in the survey's history (the only drops larger were in 2020 at the start of the pandemic).

  • The Empire survey is not a major barometer of national activity by itself, but it sets a weak tone ahead of several other regional Federal Reserve banks' readings in coming weeks (Philadelphia, KC, Dallas).
  • And following on from Friday's shock fall in the UMichigan Consumer Survey, those readings will be watched carefully for further signs that the Delta Covid variant and inflationary pressures are negatively impacting confidence (the Empire survey was conducted Aug 2-9).
  • From the NY Fed: "New orders increased modestly, and shipments grew slightly. Delivery times continued to lengthen substantially, and inventories were somewhat higher. Employment and the average workweek increased modestly. Input prices continued to rise sharply, and the pace of selling price increases set another record. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve over the next six months, with substantial increases in employment and prices expected."




Source: NY Fed

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