SWEDEN
The Swedish October activity data were soft, suggesting underlying domestic demand remained weak to begin Q4. A 25bp Riksbank cut in December was already more than fully priced heading into the release, but the data will weigh on the revised rate path presented at the upcoming decision.
- Statistics Sweden notes that the 0.4% M/M GDP print (vs a 1.1pp downwardly revised -1.5% prior) was driven by “weak figures for household consumption expenditure and exports concerning goods, with the latter mirroring weak figures in manufacturing”.
- The household consumption indicator fell 0.3% M/M for the second consecutive month. However, we note that 3m/3m consumption growth accelerated for the fourth consecutive month to 0.9% (vs 0.7% in September and -1.0% in June). This is consistent with the strong recovery in consumer confidence since the end of 2022.
- Retail trade in both food and beverages and clothing and footwear was an important source of growth in the 3m/3m consumption measure in October.
- Private sector production fell 0.8% M/M, with September revised four tenths lower to 0.7% M/M. Falls in industry and services was offset a little by construction – with that sector likely starting to benefit from lower Riksbank policy rates.
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