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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Weak Start To 2024 For Retail Sales Points To Struggling Consumption
German retail sales were slightly weaker in January than expected at -0.4% M/M (seasonally- and calendar-adjusted, vs +0.5% cons), though the soft outturn partially reflected a base effect from a large upward revision to December (-0.5% prior, revised from -1.6%). The Y/Y print (which is calculated on an ex-auto sales basis) was basically in line at -1.6% Y/Y (-1.7% cons; -3.4% prior, revised from -4.4%).
- Overall, the data - which are in real terms - suggests that conditions in German retail remain very weak though are not deteriorating rapidly. For perspective, the yearly rate has printed flat or negative for 7 consecutive months now and 16 of the past 18 - and the weakness continues to be very broad based across the major retail categories.
- The yearly decline was driven by non-food items, which printed -2.3% Y/Y (vs -4.4% prior). Sales in the furnishings, household appliances and building supplies category continued their particularly strong decline, at -7.7% Y/Y (vs -9.2% prior) after printing in negative territory in every month of 2023.
- Within the non-food sector, pharmacies, cosmetic, pharmaceutical and medical products saw the strongest developments at +1.5% Y/Y (vs -2.4% prior).
- Food items came in at -0.4% Y/Y (vs -1.5% prior), driven lower by speciality food retail (-0.8% Y/Y vs -4.0% prior) as opposed to conventional food retail (supermarkets etc., -0.3% Y/Y vs -1.3% prior), suggesting a shift towards lower-cost retail options might be ongoing in Germany.
- The upward revisions of December data slightly improve the picture of weak 2023 Christmas sales, and come after the stronger-than-expected private consumption data from the Q4 2023 GDP release (priv. cons. +0.2pp positive contribution and upward revision for Q3, from slightly negative to a +0.1pp contribution).
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