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Weaker China Steel Production Takes Us Off Recent Highs

IRON ORE

Iron ore sits off recent highs in terms of the active Singapore contract, last under $111/ton. Recent highs have been around $113/ton, while the simple 200-day MA is near $112.50/ton.

  • Weaker steel production figures in China for March have weighed on sentiment today. We were down 8% y/y, although in levels terms up from early lows in the year, as China should enter a busier construction period.
  • Still, other parts of the commodity production complex were also down in y/y terms for March, while cement production remained weak as well, as broader IP growth slowed.
  • Property related indicators continued to see large double digit falls as well.
  • Iron ore inventories at China ports remain trending higher, albeit with a reduced rate of increase in recent weeks compared to the first part of Mar/late Feb.
  • Iron ore bears will target a move back sub $100/ton, although we have been supported on dips sub this level over the past 6 months.
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