Weaker Growth, Higher Unemployment, Big 2024 Cuts

The story from the economic projections vs March's edition (keeping in mind it's not a central projection) is one of much weaker growth (below potential in 2022-23, barely above in 2024) and rising unemployment, as the Fed struggles to tame inflation despite much more aggressive front-loaded monetary tightening.

• No huge surprises in the median rate hike dots, if anything 2024 sees bigger cuts than might have been expected. The high end of the range for the dots is 3.9% for 2022, 4.4% for 2023, and 4.1% for 2024, though at least one participant sees cuts in 2023 and if I'm reading correctly, potentially all members see cuts in 2024. 2 even see the Funds rate at 2.25% or below at end-2024.
• Would guess the core leadership of the FOMC is going for 3.25-3.50% based on that dot plot (8 dots are in that range), which as the median suggests, the central view is another 175bp of further hikes this year. 75bp in July, 50bp in Sep, then two 25bps to close out the year? Would be interesting if, like in March, Powell did the math for us...