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Weakest PMIs Since Nov 2020 Suggest Worsening Contraction (2/3)

FRANCE DATA

French July flash PMI Manufacturing came in at at 38-month low 44.5 vs 46.0 expected (and 46.0 prior), with Services at a 29-month low 47.4 vs 48.5 expected (48.0 prior), dropping Composite to 46.6 vs 48.0 prior.

  • This was the worst Composite outturn since Nov 2020 and suggested that the suggested contraction in French activity at the end of Q2 was deepening going into Q3 (see chart).
  • As more broadly in Europe in this round of PMIs, this was largely a weaker demand story: new business fell for a 3rd consecutive month and at the fastest rate in over 2.5 years, with backlog-clearing helping prop up activity.
  • Notably export business dropped sharply, with the report noting softer Chinese demand than had been hoped.
  • That meant French input/output costs falling to the lowest in over 2 years, though there appeared to be some divergence here, with manufacturers reporting lower raw material prices and service providers noting higher wage bills.
  • A couple of positive areas: job growth continued (albeit at the weakest rate of 2023), while confidence strengthened vs June again led by Services firms (manufacturing sentiment remained pessimistic).

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