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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EMERGING MARKETS
- In the past few weeks, we have seen that the four major risks to EM risky assets have been:
- Contraction of Chinese liquidity
- Rising uncertainty over the Delta variant
- An increase in political instability
- A stronger US Dollar
- To the exception of the Turkish Lira (TRY), which has performed positively in July amid 'improvement' in coordination between Erdogan and the CBRT, most of the CEEMEA currencies have been depreciating against the US Dollar this month.
- The biggest loser is the ZAR; a dovish SARB combined with the recent Zuma riots and the slow Covid vaccination campaign have been weighing on the rand in recent weeks. USDZAR broke above an important resistance at 14.76 (200DMA) this week; next level to watch on the topside stands at 15.
- Despite today's strong momentum following NBH decision to hike the benchmark rate by 30bps (vs. 20bps consensus), HUF has also been weak in July amid rising inflationary pressures and legal disputes with the EU.
- EM currencies and risky assets could continue to perform poorly in the short term if preference for 'safe' assets rises.
Source: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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