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(Z1) Off Lows, But Remains Weak


Still Vulnerable


Bullish Price Sequence

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Treasuries have traded weaker in the European morning Thursday, with the unwind from the post-CPI rally resuming. Jobless claims and retail sales data in focus.

  • Modest bear steepening in the curve: 2-Yr yield is up 0.4bps at 0.2152%, 5-Yr is up 1.1bps at 0.808%, 10-Yr is up 1.4bps at 1.3124%, and 30-Yr is up 1.7bps at 1.876%.
  • Dec 10-Yr futures (TY) down 3/32 at 133-09.5 (L: 133-08.5 / H: 133-14.5), briefly moving below Wednesday's low (133-09) albeit weak volumes overall (~225k traded).
  • Modest safe-haven outperformance incl Tsys in Asia-Pac trading with weaker trade in regional equities (China Evergrande woes weighing). Not much headline / macro driving headlines in the European session, but heavy EGB supply probably helped bias global FI lower.
  • Large set of data out at 0830ET: Aug retail sales and weekly jobless claims, along with Philly Fed business outlook. Business inventories follow at 1000ET, with TIC flows at 1600ET.
  • Supply today is $45B combined 4-/8-week bill auction at 1130ET.
  • NY Fed buys ~$2.025B of 22.5-30Y Tsys.