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Wednesday saw Bank of America...........>

EURO-DOLLAR
EURO-DOLLAR: Wednesday saw Bank of America Research note that "though EUR/USD is
undervalued by about 10%, according to our estimates, we see it weakening
further in the rest of the year. We forecast EUR/USD at 1.02-1.05, with risks to
the downside. EURUSD is down 3.4% this year, but has fluctuated between 1.069
and 1.145. EUR has been supported by the unwinding of the carry trades, as a
funding currency early in the crisis, and more recently during the market rally
following strong global policy stimulus and the drop in COVID-19 infection rates
during the lockdown. However, we expect EUR/USD to weaken in the months ahead,
given: a weaker global outlook, a more severe Eurozone recession, a weaker
Eurozone macro policy response, periphery sovereign risks, low oil prices, and a
long EUR market position. We would be wrong and EUR/USD would strengthen if a
cure or vaccine for COVID-19 were to be found soon, as the global outlook would
improve substantially, or if the Europeans were to mutualize a substantial part
of the increase in the government debt-through a Eurobond/Corona bond, but this
seems unlikely."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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