Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
Reporting on key macro data at the time of release.
- Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
- MNI ResearchMNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
- About Us
EURO-DOLLAR: Wednesday saw Nomura note that they "remain long EUR/USD as it's
clear the European recovery story is in motion and countries are in the process
of relaxing their lockdowns, with so far no clear sign of a pickup in virus
cases. The risks to this view stem from US growth expectations suddenly
improving or lockdowns elsewhere worsening. It's a fine balancing act, but we
believe the recent move lower to $1.12 represented a buying opportunity - not
the signs of a new downtrend. Monthly ETF inflows continue to support EUR. Long
EUR is a consensus trade in real money space, but leveraged funds remain short:
it's not a crowded long yet. Policy-makers and re-opening measures are helping
EUR, which is a pro-cyclical currency. If a headline boosts growth expectations,
EUR will usually follow higher. Central bank balance sheets have stopped
expanding at the same rate, but key asset purchases continue. The balance of
payments for the euro area in April was awful, but the FX-sensitive components
were less so. The banking sector and euro area asset outperformance vs the US
has started to wobble and look less V-shaped, but the July EU summit may change
that and with it support EUR."