Week Ahead (1/2)

There are a number of events worth watching this week, but the roadmap out of lockdown is likely to continue to dominate the domestic agenda. The government is due to announce on 22 February whether schools will re-open on 8 March and is widely expected to confirm that all school years of both primary and secondary schools will go back simultaneously. The three criteria the government are looking at are all looking good:

1. The number of patients in hospital is approaching the peak of the first wave and is expected to half over the next month according to the weekend press.
2. The vaccination programme remains on track with over 15 million people now vaccinated (which is the vast majority of over 70s, health care workers and the "extremely vulnerable"). Now vaccination will start on Phase 2 which will initially focus on the over 65s and "vulnerable" under 65s before moving on to the rest of the over 50s population. If the current pace of vaccination is maintained, vaccinations for this group would be completed by the end of March.
3. The 7-day moving average of new cases up to 7 February has fallen below the November lockdown low and is now at the lowest level since early October.