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Week Ahead (1/2)

UK
  • The highlight of the week ahead for UK markets will be the Bank of England MPC meeting, with the policy decision, statement and Minutes all due for release on Thursday. At the time of writing, markets are pricing in around 30bp (so fully pricing a 25bp hike with around a 20% probability of a 50bp hike). This is down from a peak of around 45bp priced in mid-February, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine having reduced market pricing for the upcoming meeting, but pushed up expectations of the number of hikes this year given the impacts on commodity, particularly energy prices, and the potential for further supply chain disruptions.
  • We will release our full BOE preview this week but so far we have only seen Berenberg continue to expect no hike this week, with all other sell-side reports we have read looking for a 25bp hike as their base case. Views seem to be split between whether there will be a 9-0 unanimous vote or whether any of the four MPC members who voted for a 50bp hike in February will vote for another 50bp hike this week. Most previews completely ignore any discussion of whether any MPC members will dissent in favour of an on hold decision this week, while some discuss it as a risk.
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