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Week Ahead (1/2)

UK
  • Last week saw some big volatility in UK rates markets (although relative to the moves seen in US and European markets last week, sterling markets were relatively stable!) The most important domestic event was the change in language from the Bank of England, removing explicit time-dependent forward guidance and replacing it with language that leaves the door open to hikes of a different scale – opening the door to 50bp from the wider MPC. Market pricing in the aftermath of the meeting moved to price around 60bp for August (i.e. fully pricing a 50bp hike with a 40% probability of August), but as we argue in the MNI BOE Review, we think the real probability should be closer to 25bp being fully priced with a 60% probability of a 50bp hike.
  • There are three main data points that we think will be absolutely pivotal: the two inflation prints and the next labour market data release. The first of these comes this week on Wednesday with the release of May CPI data. Economists are generally split between 9.0-9.2%Y/Y for headline (from 9.0% in April) while core is expected to come in anywhere between 5.9-6.3%Y/Y in an unusually large range. This was 6.2%Y/Y in April, so 13/23 economists in the Bloomberg survey expect a lower core CPI print in May than April.
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