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Policy
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Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessWeek Ahead (1/2)
- Last week saw some big volatility in UK rates markets (although relative to the moves seen in US and European markets last week, sterling markets were relatively stable!) The most important domestic event was the change in language from the Bank of England, removing explicit time-dependent forward guidance and replacing it with language that leaves the door open to hikes of a different scale – opening the door to 50bp from the wider MPC. Market pricing in the aftermath of the meeting moved to price around 60bp for August (i.e. fully pricing a 50bp hike with a 40% probability of August), but as we argue in the MNI BOE Review, we think the real probability should be closer to 25bp being fully priced with a 60% probability of a 50bp hike.
- There are three main data points that we think will be absolutely pivotal: the two inflation prints and the next labour market data release. The first of these comes this week on Wednesday with the release of May CPI data. Economists are generally split between 9.0-9.2%Y/Y for headline (from 9.0% in April) while core is expected to come in anywhere between 5.9-6.3%Y/Y in an unusually large range. This was 6.2%Y/Y in April, so 13/23 economists in the Bloomberg survey expect a lower core CPI print in May than April.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.