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Week Ahead (1/2)

UK
  • It is a hugely busy upcoming week for UK events with the Autumn Statement setting out the fiscal outlook on Thursday but we will also receive labour market, inflation, consumer confidence and retail sales data. In addition we will hear from seven of the nine MPC members this week.
  • We will publish our full Autumn Statement preview over the next couple of days. The focus will be on how much taxes are raised, and how spending cuts are delivered.
  • With inflation running in double digits, it appears as though the majority of tax raises and spending cuts will be the so called “stealth” rises / cuts. For things like income tax or inheritance tax this means utilising fiscal drag and leaving the thresholds unchanged rather than raising them in line with inflation. This is likely to be the case for an extended period – perhaps five years.
  • There has also been discussion in the media that the threshold for the additional rate of income tax (which is payable at 45%) will be lowered from £150,000 to £125,000 (this was set to be completely abolished under the Truss / Kwarteng plan).
  • Also said to be under discussion is pension tax relief for higher / additional rate taxpayers – something that would be hugely controversial with many Conservative MPs.
  • At present contributions to pension schemes receive tax relief at source. Expansions to windfall taxes on both banks and energy companies (including green producers) are all said to be under discussion.
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