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Week Ahead (1/3): Big week for data

UK
  • In some ways it has felt that 2022 has not really kicked off in UK markets until recently. There have been no notable MPC speeches this year and until Friday there had been no notable UK data. Friday’s data was, of course, much stronger than expected and showed the level of GDP surpassed the pre-pandemic level in November. There was little market reaction to the release, however, for two reasons: firstly, the data is largely pre-Omicron and second GDP growth is seen as much less important than either inflation or labour market data.
  • With this in mind, it is clear that the upcoming week will be key for the UK. We are due to receive labour market data on Tuesday. The experimental HMRC payroll data will be closely watched (referring to the December period) but also the average earnings numbers. The earnings numbers are expected to pull back further from their highs but to remain at elevated levels.
  • We will then receive inflation data on Wednesday. Consensus looks for headline CPI to pick up a tenth Y/Y to 5.2%. Note that this is still not the expected peak in inflation – that is still expected in April as household energy bills increase as the price cap rises to take into account global commodity market moves (although bear in mind that there is talk of some government intervention to dampen the full pass-through). Core inflation is expected to remain high, but fall a tenth to 3.9%Y/Y.
  • We will also receive GfK consumer confidence data for January and retail sales data for December (both on Friday). These come ahead of the flash PMI data which is due Monday next week.
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