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Week Ahead (1/3): Lockdown easing to be pushed back 4 weeks

UK
  • It will be a busy week for the UK with the next phase of lockdown easing likely to be pushed back today, the Northern Ireland protocol still likely to make headlines and probably the most important week for domestic data of the month.
  • The newspapers seem to be unanimously expecting a four week extension to the implementation of the final stage of the Covid-19 roadmap out of lockdown in England to Monday 19 July. All legal restrictions on businesses were due to end next Monday 21 June and it had originally looked likely that this would coincide with the work from home advice and a review of social distancing. However, with the Delta variant (originally observed in India) now the dominant variant in the UK and with cases up 50% week on week again and hospital numbers starting to also increase (albeit not at the same rate), the government is set to say it is being cautious so that England does not move in and out of lockdowns. One of the four pillars of the government's roadmap out of lockdown had been that new variants of concern did not risk overwhelming the NHS and it appears that the Delta variant in particular is reliant upon two doses of the vaccine (plus the 2-3 weeks for immunity to build up), and one vaccine dose is rather less effective against the Delta strain than either the original or Alpha strains (originally observed in Kent).

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