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Bull Rally Accelerates

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Economists Survey Raises 2021 CPI Forecast To 4.9%

Week Ahead (2/2)

UK
  • In terms of data this week, the highlight will be Friday's monthly GDP data for April along with its constituent parts. Recall that in England the first restrictions on social contact were eased on 29 March while 12 April saw non-essential retail and outside hospitality start to reopen. This will be the most conclusive data yet on the impact of the easing of lockdown. A downside surprise to the data is likely to be largely dismissed by markets while an upside surprise would likely have been market moving, had it not been for the current debate over whether the June 21 reopening date would be postponed.
  • There is not a lot else on the calendar for the UK this week with Haldane due to make a couple of appearances but his views are well known and as an outgoing MPC member who has already dissented at the last meeting his views are not seen as anything like the consensus of the MPC. There is also an update on the regulatory priorities regarding the LIBOR transmission from Hughes.
  • Note that the 8.00% Jun-21 gilt matures on 7 June. Despite having a nominal size of almost GBP25bln, less than GBP5bln is held by markets with the remainder already bought back by the government or owned by the BOE. (And note that despite these holdings from the BOE maturing there will be no change to the pace of QE to reflect the reinvestment).

For the full document including auction previews for the week ahead, QE tracker and BOE purchase analysis, cash flow matrix and issuance calendar, click here.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3820 | tim.davis@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3820 | tim.davis@marketnews.com