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Week Ahead (2/2)

UK
  • This week also has no scheduled MPC speakers ahead of next week’s Monetary Policy Report and policy decision. Last week we heard very little new from Bailey and Cunliffe as they testified ahead of the Treasury Select Committee with the main focus the Financial Stability Report. Mann also spoke last week and sounded as though she was more inclined to vote for nearer-term hikes in order to reduce the need for more hikes overall. This suggests to the MNI Markets team she is probably in favour of a February hike, and that she would probably follow up with another hike in March or May. However, she was very noncommittal on timings, so it is hard to read too much into her comments – there will be something positive for most views in her comments!
  • With the lack of UK data or speeches later this week, we note that UK markets will again likely be at the mercy of external factors, most notably the Fed.
  • In terms of politics, Sue Gray’s report on “partygate” is likely to be released this week. However, as we noted in last week’s Gilt Week Ahead (here), this is not really having much impact on sterling asset prices, and even a new PM would not be expected to move markets too much (other than remove some uncertainty).
  • See the full MNI Gilt Week Ahead for gilt supply previews for the week ahead, QE tracker and BOE purchase analysis, cash flow matrix and issuance calendar.
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