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Week Ahead (2/3): Johnson presser later amid NI protocol headlines

UK
  • The decision will be announced today with a press conference from Boris Johnson due to take place this evening. The extension to the lockdown will require new legislation (which is likely to see a decent number of Conservative backbenches in opposition), while it is likely that the next review date will likely be Monday 5 July (two weeks before the new proposed unlocking date). Despite some backbench opposition, recent polling suggests that a majority of the public approves a delay to the reopening, while some recent reports have suggested that as the unlocking date is still before state schools break up for their summer holidays (which is generally some time in the week beginning Monday 19 July), there will be less public opposition.
  • It is unclear at present whether there will be any other restrictions eased although there has been some discussion in the media that restrictions on wedding guests will be loosened to be in line with the rules for funerals. While restrictions on spectators at some sporting or outside events could also see higher capacities allowed.
  • Against this backdrop, the UK remains in disagreement with the EU over the implementation of the Northern Ireland protocol, in an issue that could eventually escalate into tariffs or quotas being imposed. Any developments this week will have the potential to move markets.

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