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Week Ahead

UK
  • Today will see the next stage of the reopening of England as the next step of the reopening from lockdown takes place. non-essential retail reopen along with outdoor hospitality and attractions, self-contained holiday accommodation without a communal area, gyms and hairdressers all reopen.
  • Focus will be on whether there was any dent to confidence for the vaccination campaign after the recent announcements about potential rare blood clots in the Oxford-AZ vaccine which has been the most frequently used in the UK to date. Other than the odd anecdotal report of someone not turning up for a second dose, the data appear to be very encouraging with Saturday (the latest data point) seeing a record number of second doses administered (475,230).
  • This week will also see February activity data released: monthly GDP, IP, services, construction and trade. Relative to January, consensus expects all to pick up by around half a percentage point, but to remain at subdued levels due to the lockdown. Activity data will be much more useful when more of the economy is opened up.
  • There are also a number of MPC members making speeches this week, but none directly on monetary policy. Haldane, Tenreyro, Haskel and Cunliffe are all scheduled.
  • It is a relatively light week for supply, but there will be focus on duration with the 50-year 1.625% Oct-71 gilt and the 30-year 0.125% Mar-51 linker both on offer this week. The main focus will be on the tail of the 50-year auction. There were some relatively wide tails seen on long-dated auctions in the second half of March although last week's 25-year auction saw a relatively tight 0.3bp tail.
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