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Week Ahead (3/3)

UK
  • Funding this on top of higher-than-budgeted public sector wage increases would be difficult, however, without some currently unannounced tax increases. Public finance data released last Friday also showed higher borrowing than expected, which is also going to make finding extra money for these policies difficult.
  • Last week’s data saw headline inflation in line with BOE expectations (but services CPI higher with core goods and food inflation lower, see review here) while labour market data was relatively soft (see review here). Retail sales data were also soft (albeit this data is very volatile). In light of these data releases, we still see around a 50/50 probability of an August MPC cut.
  • This week sees the flash PMI data due for release, and there will be continued focus on cost passthrough and also on any changes in expectations now that the new government is in place. There were no further MPC comments last week, and we have now entered into the quiet period ahead of the August policy announcement / MPR.
  • At the time of writing markets price around a 37% probability of an August cut with 104bp priced by August 2025.
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