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LATAM: Week Ahead: Banxico QIR / Minutes, Colombia, Mexico GDP, Brazil Activity

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  • Banxico is due to publish both its quarterly inflation report (Weds) and minutes to the Feb 6 MPC meeting (Thurs) next week. At that meeting, the central bank delivered a larger 50bp rate cut, in a split vote, with Deputy Governor Heath voting for a smaller 25bp reduction. On the data front, Q4 GDP is due in both Colombia (Mon) and Mexico (Fri), while December economic activity stats from Peru (Sat) and Brazil (Mon) also cross.
    • Peru December economic activity and January labour market cross on Saturday, with growth seen holding at 3.9% y/y, which would take 2024 full-year GDP growth to 3.2%.
    • On Monday, Colombia’s economy is expected to have grown by 0.3% q/q in Q4, lifting annual growth marginally to 2.1% y/y. This would take full-year GDP growth to 1.7%. Elsewhere, Brazil December economic activity is seen slowing to 3.7% y/y, amid the restrictive monetary policy stance. The BCB’s Focus survey and Argentina budget data are also due.
    • The calendar is light on Tuesday, with just Argentina January trade and the latest BanRep economist survey crossing.
    • On Wednesday, Banxico will publish its Q4 inflation report. Inflation forecasts are expected to be in line with those from the recent MPC meeting, which showed inflation converging to the 3.0% target in Q3 2026. Focus will be on likely downward revisions to GDP growth and the implications for the monetary policy outlook.
    • Banxico will then publish the minutes to its Feb 6 MPC meeting on Thursday, which should shed light on the decision to cut by 50bp as well as dynamics within the new Board composition. Mexico December retail sales and the latest Citi economist survey are also due.
    • On Friday, final Q4 GDP figures for Mexico will be released. Initial estimates suggested a 0.6% q/q contraction, with annual growth slipping to just +0.6% y/y. This put full-year growth at 1.5% provisionally, with estimates for this year sitting nearer 1.0%.
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  • Banxico is due to publish both its quarterly inflation report (Weds) and minutes to the Feb 6 MPC meeting (Thurs) next week. At that meeting, the central bank delivered a larger 50bp rate cut, in a split vote, with Deputy Governor Heath voting for a smaller 25bp reduction. On the data front, Q4 GDP is due in both Colombia (Mon) and Mexico (Fri), while December economic activity stats from Peru (Sat) and Brazil (Mon) also cross.
    • Peru December economic activity and January labour market cross on Saturday, with growth seen holding at 3.9% y/y, which would take 2024 full-year GDP growth to 3.2%.
    • On Monday, Colombia’s economy is expected to have grown by 0.3% q/q in Q4, lifting annual growth marginally to 2.1% y/y. This would take full-year GDP growth to 1.7%. Elsewhere, Brazil December economic activity is seen slowing to 3.7% y/y, amid the restrictive monetary policy stance. The BCB’s Focus survey and Argentina budget data are also due.
    • The calendar is light on Tuesday, with just Argentina January trade and the latest BanRep economist survey crossing.
    • On Wednesday, Banxico will publish its Q4 inflation report. Inflation forecasts are expected to be in line with those from the recent MPC meeting, which showed inflation converging to the 3.0% target in Q3 2026. Focus will be on likely downward revisions to GDP growth and the implications for the monetary policy outlook.
    • Banxico will then publish the minutes to its Feb 6 MPC meeting on Thursday, which should shed light on the decision to cut by 50bp as well as dynamics within the new Board composition. Mexico December retail sales and the latest Citi economist survey are also due.
    • On Friday, final Q4 GDP figures for Mexico will be released. Initial estimates suggested a 0.6% q/q contraction, with annual growth slipping to just +0.6% y/y. This put full-year growth at 1.5% provisionally, with estimates for this year sitting nearer 1.0%.