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LATAM: Week Ahead: Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia CPI, Peru Rate Decision

LATAM
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  • CPI inflation data for December will be released across the region next week, while on the monetary policy front a slight majority of analysts see the BCRP delivering a 25bp rate cut on Thursday. Elsewhere, the minutes for the BCCh and Banxico’s December monetary policy meetings will be published during the week, where both central banks delivered 25bp rate cuts.
    • The BCCh will publish the minutes to its December monetary policy meeting on Monday. At that meeting, the central bank struck a more cautious tone, pointing to a potential pause at the January MPC meeting and a slower pace of rate cuts beyond that. Elsewhere, the BCB will publish its weekly Focus survey with attention on the continued deterioration in the inflation outlook. Datawise, Brazil services PMI and trade figures for December are due.
    • On Tuesday, Chile’s trade surplus is expected to widen to $2.1bn in December, while November nominal wage figures will also cross. In Mexico, the latest Citi survey of economists is expected, while the BCRA will publish its analyst survey.
    • Analysts expect Chile December CPI inflation to rebound to 4.7% y/y on Wednesday, while the BCCh will also publish its latest traders’ survey. In Brazil, industrial production growth is seen slowing to 1.8% y/y in November, while Argentina IP and construction activity numbers are also due.
    • On Thursday, Mexico headline CPI inflation is set to fall to 4.2% y/y in December, while the core rate holds steady around 3.6%. Banxico will also release the minutes to its December MPC meeting when it cut rates by another 25bp, while in Peru the BCRP is seen delivering a 25bp cut to 4.75%. Elsewhere, Colombia CPI inflation is expected to slow further in December, while Brazil retail sales figures also cross.
    • Brazil IPCA inflation takes the focus on Friday, with the headline rate forecast to remain steady at 4.86% y/y in December. Mexico IP is expected to fall by 1% y/y, while in Chile the BCCh releases its next economist survey.
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  • CPI inflation data for December will be released across the region next week, while on the monetary policy front a slight majority of analysts see the BCRP delivering a 25bp rate cut on Thursday. Elsewhere, the minutes for the BCCh and Banxico’s December monetary policy meetings will be published during the week, where both central banks delivered 25bp rate cuts.
    • The BCCh will publish the minutes to its December monetary policy meeting on Monday. At that meeting, the central bank struck a more cautious tone, pointing to a potential pause at the January MPC meeting and a slower pace of rate cuts beyond that. Elsewhere, the BCB will publish its weekly Focus survey with attention on the continued deterioration in the inflation outlook. Datawise, Brazil services PMI and trade figures for December are due.
    • On Tuesday, Chile’s trade surplus is expected to widen to $2.1bn in December, while November nominal wage figures will also cross. In Mexico, the latest Citi survey of economists is expected, while the BCRA will publish its analyst survey.
    • Analysts expect Chile December CPI inflation to rebound to 4.7% y/y on Wednesday, while the BCCh will also publish its latest traders’ survey. In Brazil, industrial production growth is seen slowing to 1.8% y/y in November, while Argentina IP and construction activity numbers are also due.
    • On Thursday, Mexico headline CPI inflation is set to fall to 4.2% y/y in December, while the core rate holds steady around 3.6%. Banxico will also release the minutes to its December MPC meeting when it cut rates by another 25bp, while in Peru the BCRP is seen delivering a 25bp cut to 4.75%. Elsewhere, Colombia CPI inflation is expected to slow further in December, while Brazil retail sales figures also cross.
    • Brazil IPCA inflation takes the focus on Friday, with the headline rate forecast to remain steady at 4.86% y/y in December. Mexico IP is expected to fall by 1% y/y, while in Chile the BCCh releases its next economist survey.