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Week Ahead: Focus on Peru Interest Rate Decision, June CPI Inflation Data Elsewhere

LATAM
  • Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina are all set to release CPI data for June next week, with headline inflation in many countries expected to remain sticky, even as core inflation continues to moderate. On the monetary policy front, the central bank of Peru is expected to remain on hold on Thursday, while Banxico will release the minutes to its June MPC meeting.
    • Attention will be on Chile on Monday, when June CPI inflation, trade and the latest BCCh traders survey will all be released. Analysts expect the annual inflation rate to edge up to 4.3% y/y, from 4.1%. Colombia will also publish June CPI data after market close, where the headline rate is expected to remain steady at 7.14% y/y, while core inflation moderates to 7.66%. Elsewhere, the BCB’s Focus survey will also cross.
    • Focus on Tuesday turns to Mexico, where headline CPI inflation is set to rise further to 4.86% y/y, even as core inflation edges down to 4.14%. June consumer confidence is also due.
    • On Wednesday, it is Brazil’s turn to publish June CPI data, with the IPCA inflation measure expected to rise further above 4%. Mexico ANTAD same-store sales, Colombia consumer confidence and the BCCh economist survey will also cross.
    • Attention on Thursday will be on the BCRP, which is expected to keep its benchmark reference rate unchanged at 5.75%, given the persistence of core inflation just above target and better-than-expected economic activity. Elsewhere, Banxico will publish the minutes to its June MPC meeting, when it left rates on hold at 11.0%, while Brazil will release May retail sales figures.
    • On Friday, Mexico industrial production growth is expected to slow to 1.4% y/y in May, while Argentina June CPI inflation figures are also due.
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