Week Ahead for Asia-Pacific

     AUSTRALIA

     It's a very light week, with the lone data release of market interest being

private sector credit for August. Market will focus more on offshore events,

with the local focus on shifts in economists' forecasts for the first RBA cash

rate hike after three of the big four banks joined the 2018 hike camp.

     RBA

     On Tuesday, RBA assistant governor for financial stability Michele Bullock

participates in a panel discussion at an event titled "Where to from here" in

Sydney at 0715 local (2215 GMT Monday). There may be some comments related to

the housing market but they are unlikely to be market-moving. Of greater

interest will be whether Bullock will be asked about housing price growth in the

Q&A session.

     On Thursday, RBA deputy governor Guy Debelle speaks on "Central Bank

Independence in Retrospect" at Bank of England conference in London. The speech

is due at 1900 Sydney time (0900 GMT). There is also Q&A. Given the proximity to

the next RBA board meeting (Oct 3), Debelle is likely to be cautious about

making any comments on current monetary policy, so this may be a non-event from

a market point of view.

     Data

     After a quiet Monday, the ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence index

is due to be released at 0930 local (0030 GMT) Tuesday. The last survey saw

confidence rebound from the sharp fall the week prior but this week's confidence

may be hit by news on rate hike expectations.

     On Thursday at 1130 local (0230 GMT), the quarterly job vacancies data is

due to be published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This data is not

generally market-moving because ANZ publishes monthly job ads data, which are

more timely.

     On Friday at 1130 local (0230 GMT), the RBA will publish private sector

credit data for August, with the MNI survey median forecasting a 0.5% m/m rise,

the same pace as July. Of more importance in the data will be growth in housing

mortgages and whether the shift toward owner-occupier mortgages from investor

loans has continued.

     NEW ZEALAND

     It's an important week, with RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler handing over his

position to incoming Governor Grant Spencer, who will serve in an acting role

for six months. Two days later will be Spencer's first official cash rate

decision.

     In addition, the market will focus on political developments after the

weekend election saw the National party emerge with the most seats but not

enough to form a government. While the National party has a better chance of

forming a government with the help of the populist New Zealand First party, the

Labour party is also seeking to do the same, and it may be weeks before the next

government is revealed.

     RBNZ

     The handover from Graeme Wheeler to Grant Spencer will happen on Tuesday.

     On Thursday at 0900 local (2100 GMT Wednesday) is the OCR decision, with

the rate expected to be left on hold once again in line with view of both market

and economists. Economists also expect no change in the policy stance.

     Data 

     On Tuesday at 1045 local (2245 GMT Monday) is trade balance for August,

with the MNI survey median forecasting a deficit of NZ$600 million, a sharp

turnaround from NZ$85 million surplus the month before, due largely to seasonal

factors.

     Also on Tuesday at 1300 local (0100 GMT) ANZ's monthly business survey for

September will be released. As always, the focus will be on inflation

expectations and pricing indicators, apart from the headline confidence and

activity outlook.

     On Friday at 1045 local time (2245 GMT) building consents data for August

are expected to be mostly flat after a 0.7% m/m fall in July.

     JAPAN

     Bank of Japan

     Monday, 2:30 pm local time (0530 GMT): Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko

Kuroda speaks to business leaders in Osaka City, western Japan. At 4:45 pm (0745

GMT) Kuroda holds a news conference in Osaka.

     Tuesday, 8:50 am (2350 GMT Monday): The BOJ releases the minutes of its

July 19-20 policy meeting. The board decided to leave its monetary policy

unchanged in a seven-to-two vote, retaining the yield curve control target it

adopted in September last year. It pushed back its estimate for achieving its 2%

inflation target by a year until "around fiscal 2019." It was the sixth delay

since the BOJ began aggressive easing in April 2013.

     Thursday, 3:35 pm (0635 GMT): BOJ Governor Kuroda delivers a brief speech

at an annual meeting of securities dealers in Tokyo.

     Friday, 8:50 am (2350 GMT Thursday): The BOJ releases the summary of

opinions presented at its Sept. 20-21 policy meeting. The board decided in an

8-to-1 vote to maintain its current monetary easing stance under the yield curve

control framework it adopted about a year ago. One of the two new board members,

Goushi Kataoka, dissented, arguing current policy was insufficient to hit the

BOJ's 2% inflation target in fiscal 2019. He didn't make any counter-proposals.

     Friday, 5 pm (0800 GMT): The BOJ releases its JGB purchase plans for

October, the pace of which is expected to be unchanged from September.

     Data

     Tuesday, 8:50 am (2350 GMT Monday): The BOJ releases the August service

producer price index (SPPI). In July, the SPPI rose 0.6% on year, the 49th

straight year-on-year rise, but the pace of increase decelerated from +0.7% in

June.

     Friday, 8:30 am (2330 GMT Thursday): The Ministry of Internal Affairs and

Communications releases August national, September Tokyo CPI, August household

spending, August unemployment rate. The MNI median forecasts: August core

national CPI +0.7% on year for the eighth straight y/y rise vs. +0.5% in July;

September Tokyo core CPI +0.5% y/y for the third straight rise vs. +0.4% in

August; August unemployment rate 2.8% vs. 2.8% in July, which remained at the

lowest since June 1994, when it was also at 2.8%.

     Friday, 8:50 am (2350 GMT Thursday): The Ministry of Economy, Trade and

Industry releases preliminary August industrial output and its outlook for

September, October as well as preliminary August retail sales. The MNI median

forecasts: industrial production +1.9% on month, the first m/m rise in two

months vs. -0.8% in July; retail sales +2.6% on year, the 10th straight y/y rise

vs. +1.8% in July. 

Japanese Government Bonds

     Monday: BOJ outright purchase operations for JGBs with remaining life of

1-3, 3-5 and 5-10 years expected. 

     Tuesday: The Ministry of Finance to auction Y500 billion of 40-year bonds.

     Wednesday: BOJ outright purchase operations for JGBs with remaining life of

1-3, 3-5, 10-25 and over 25 years expected. 

     Thursday: The MOF to auction Y2.2 trillion of 2-year bonds and Y4.4

trillion of three-month Treasury discount bills.

     Friday: BOJ outright purchase operations for JGBs with remaining life of

5-10, 10-25 and over 25 years expected.

     Japanese government bond yields are likely to stay at low levels on

continued tight supply-demand conditions. But JGBs may come under some selling

pressure if investor risk-on mode emerges.

     The 10-year JGB yield is seen moving between 0.015% and 0.035% this week

against the bank's target of around zero. It rose to 0.040% on Sept. 14 for the

highest level since mid-August after falling to -0.010% on Sept. 8, the lowest

since Nov. 15, 2016.

     CHINA

     Data

     Wednesday, Sept. 27, about 09:30 CST (0130 GMT): The combined profits of

Chinese industrial firms for August will be released by the National Bureau of

Statistics (NBS). It rose 16.5% year-on-year in July, down 2.6 percentage points

from the 19.1% y/y growth rate in June, but much higher than a rise of 11% last

July. 

     Saturday, Sept.30 about 09:00 CST (0100 GMT): The official China

manufacturing and service PMI, jointly released by the China Federation of

Logistics and Purchasing and the NBS, will come out. The manufacturing PMI beat

estimates and hit 51.7 in August from 51.4 in July. It was the second highest

level this year after 51.8 in March. The services PMI fell in August to 53.4

from 54.5 in July, ending ten consecutive months of readings above the 54 mark,

but remained at a relatively strong level.

     Saturday, Sept.30 about 09:45 CST (0145 GMT): The private Caixin

manufacturing PMI, compiled by IHS Markit for Caixin, will be released. The

gauge rose to 51.6 in August from 51.1 in July and was also well above the 50.0

reading last July.