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Week in Review; Consumer Curves

CONSUMER CYCLICALS

* Consumer staples (+5) & cyclicals (+4) were a drag on €IG spreads (+3) this week

* Supply wasn't heavy outside of booking.com (A3, A-) on a 4-part/€2.7b deal. The discount for its rating/credit metrics we flagged last week did little to support spreads in secondary with the curve moving +5-13bps wider. Accor 28's (NR, BBB-) that we saw as rich post-earnings (including against BKNG's curve) still held firm through it.

* Tobacco curves headlined by BAT (+4-18bps) were a large drag in staples. We've noted through Feb the rally through historical discounts to the index & flagged a reversion was likely risk on broader decompression. This week's sell-off in broader IG seems to have been the catalyst for that. With only 2bps of decompression in IG WTD risk remains for more widening particularly in BAT/Imperial curves.

* Eurofins Scientific (Baa3, BBB) struggled in the sessions following its earnings. Continued cost and investment are concerning headwinds on FCF conversion (which the raters keep an eye on). Leverage not a pain point with company already in target.

* Earnings in HY included Nomad (B1,BB-) & Birkenstock (NR,B,BB), latter giving markets what it had seemingly already priced; strong progress in deleveraging & now close to target. Names we were focused on heading into the week including Coty (Ba2,BB+), VF (pricing as fallen angel) & Avis were little changed on a lack of key updates on asset sales & from raters. Headwinds continuing to mount for Avis's sentiment.

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