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Weekend ECB Speak In Line With June Status Quo

STIR

ECB-dated OIS contracts remain within Friday's range, pricing 85bps of rate cuts through the remainder of '24.

  • June cut pricing has been happy to trade between 20-25bps over the past week, with most ECB speakers pointing to June as the most likely meeting for the first cut.
  • Weekend ECB speak from Bank of Spain's de Cos and Bank of Finland's Rehn did little to change the narrative around current pricing.
  • Euribor futures are generally little changed through the blues.
  • Final Eurozone CPI data headlines the regional calendar today, with the ECB's underlying inflation metrics (usually released in the afternoon) our main focus.
  • Comments from ECB’s Centeno are due later, although the setting reduces the chances of market-moving headlines.
  • Looking ahead, the regional calendar is highlighted by survey evidence (INSEE, ZEW, PMIs, IFO, Belgian Business Confidence) as well as focus on external events such as the Fed, BOE and SNB decisions.
Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Apr-243.898-1.1
Jun-243.706-20.3
Jul-243.568-34.1
Sep-243.372-53.7
Oct-243.226-68.3
Dec-243.055-85.4
Jan-252.924-98.5
Mar-252.780-112.9
Source: MNI/Bloomberg
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