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Weekly CPI in Focus As Markets Price out 25bp CBR Cut Over 3m Horizon

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB lower after underperforming EM high-beta peers on demand side risks to oil and broad based risk-off.
  • Spot capped by short-term resistance 76.00-76.0583.
  • Focus today on weekly CPI with further upside prints reinforcing CBR concerns about nascent price pressures and unanchored inflation expectations
  • which could filter through into RUB today.
  • RUB FRA 3x6 - Mosprime spreads reflecting hawkish tilt, pricing out 17.5bp of embedded easing in Monday's session.
  • Global factors should support more USD/RUB downside, however, with USD remaining under pressure into month-end.
  • Move through 75.00 may see spot drift back towards 74.00, provided risk sentiment remains accommodative and the demand outlook for brent improves following a surprise API inventory build.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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