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Wells Fargo With Above CPI Consensus Call

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Wells Fargo see core CPI in September at 0.5% M/M (cons 0.4), above consensus but below August's 0.6% upward surprise.
  • The more moderate core gain is likely to stem from goods inflation as consumer spending shifts back toward services and retail inventories are starting to pile up.
  • "Core services should again be a primary driver of inflation this month, as lags from rent and home price measures indicate another strong monthly gain. Wage gains are particularly important to the services sector, and by remaining elevated, continue to complicate the Fed's fight against inflation."
  • Headline CPI seen 0.2% M/M (8.1% Y/Y) with energy prices likely a considerable part of soothing as gasoline prices declined through most of the month.
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