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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessWestpac expect "AU bonds to............>
AUSSIE BONDS: Westpac expect "AU bonds to outperform US counterparts, especially
during US-led sell-offs within the range. That is because of the "game changer"
implied by Westpac's independent rate hike. We saw pricing for the RBA fall from
a 30% chance of a 25bp hike by the second half of '19, to a 20% chance. That
chance will diminish further should the other major banks follow with similar
moves. We saw the 3-10yr curve bull steepen slightly & the AU-US 10yr bond
spread move to a new inverse level. Our curve view continues to be based on a
continuation of the med term flattening theme, meaning that periodic steepening
impulses should be faded. With the chance of other independent rate hikes being
high, we suspect we will get more opportunities to do just that in coming weeks.
We would have even more confidence if the steepener was a bear steepener, led by
offshore outcomes. The potential for the Fed to re-emphasise its current median
profile, implying a more hawkish outlook than is currently factored-into the US
front end, combined with a higher prob. that the mkt will factor-in a more
dovish RBA profile, are the keys to exp. further AU-US 10yr spread narrowing, so
the med term -40bp target is still intact."
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.