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Westpac expect "the ongoing RBA........>

AUSSIE BONDS
AUSSIE BONDS: Westpac expect "the ongoing RBA cycle to keep rates low for
longer. Hence, we will be either long or neutral in both a tactical and
strategic sense over coming weeks. It is too early to expect yields to rise on
an improving economic outlook. We are neutral at current levels but tactically
we would be better buyers on dips, especially those led by US price action. The
curve is very long end directional given how much RBA easing is in the forward
profile, fade any US-led steepening back toward the 45-50bp region. BEIs are low
but are awaiting confirmation that RBA policy is effective off current levels.
We think they will eventually trend higher from current levels. It too early to
buy BEIs, however, they would provide good participation in any global outright
sell-off. We are contemplating how much more AU outperformance is likely vs.
Tsys on a near term and medium term basis. The response of the curve to a
FOMC-induced UST shift will further inform our view. Further outperformance will
be slow, however there is little reason to expect a major underperformance while
the RBA outlook is shifting. The next major move will most likely occur on a
further RBA-driven dip in the currency."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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