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Westpac Lead Index Pauses Decline, Growth Outlook Subdued

AUSTRALIA DATA

The Westpac leading index rose 0.1% m/m in June after falling 0.3% in May driven by building approvals, less expected RBA tightening and US IP. The 6m/6m annualised measure improved to -0.5% from -1.0%, but is the eleventh straight negative month. Westpac calculates that this series leads detrended activity by 6 to 9 months, thus it is pointing to continued below trend growth in H1 2024. Westpac expects the RBA to hike another 50bp and for Q2 2024 GDP to be only 0.3% y/y. See Westpac report here.


Australia Westpac LI vs real GDP %

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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