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Westpac Leading Index Points To Below Trend Growth Into 2024

AUSTRALIA DATA

Westpac’s leading indicator fell 0.03% m/m in April to be down 0.78% on a 6-month annualised basis after -0.69% in March. This latter measure has been negative since August 2022 and signals below trend growth continuing 3 to 9 months ahead and thus into 2024.

  • The stronger equity market was a positive for the index. There was also a more stable yield gap as monetary tightening has slowed. But there was a substantial weakening of building activity and a drop in commodity prices which weighed on the index.
  • Westpac expects the RBA to be on hold at its June 6 meeting.
  • See Westpac’s report here.
Australia Westpac leading index 6m/6m ann% vs real GDP 2q/2q ann%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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