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Westpac Leading Index Signals Weak But Improving Growth

AUSTRALIA DATA
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The Westpac leading fell 0.04% m/m in July after rising 0.01% in June, which left the 6-month annualised rate slightly positive at 0.06% up from -0.3% in January and -0.7% a year ago. The series signals that while growth should improve, it is likely to remain weak going into 2025. Also, the move lower in commodity prices is likely to be a headwind going forward.

  • Westpac expects H2 2024 annualised growth of 2.2% up from 0.8% in H1.
  • The 6-month rate was boosted by hours worked and US IP but commodity prices and consumer confidence detracted in July.
  • Economic issues in China are driving commodity prices lower, which is likely to impact Australia over coming months. LME metal prices are down 3.4% m/m in August to date and iron ore is down 7.5% m/m.
Australia Westpac leading index 6-mth annualised change %

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The Westpac leading fell 0.04% m/m in July after rising 0.01% in June, which left the 6-month annualised rate slightly positive at 0.06% up from -0.3% in January and -0.7% a year ago. The series signals that while growth should improve, it is likely to remain weak going into 2025. Also, the move lower in commodity prices is likely to be a headwind going forward.

  • Westpac expects H2 2024 annualised growth of 2.2% up from 0.8% in H1.
  • The 6-month rate was boosted by hours worked and US IP but commodity prices and consumer confidence detracted in July.
  • Economic issues in China are driving commodity prices lower, which is likely to impact Australia over coming months. LME metal prices are down 3.4% m/m in August to date and iron ore is down 7.5% m/m.
Australia Westpac leading index 6-mth annualised change %

Keep reading...Show less